Benfica U19 5–0 Bayer Leverkusen U19

Benfica U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Bayer Leverkusen U19

G. M. Neves 55'

Dudu 48'

F. Souza 43'

G. Moreira 40', 9'

11/5/2025

UEFA Youth League · League Stage - 4Benfica Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Benfica U1975%

×Draw15%

Bayer Leverkusen U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benfica U19Expected goals in this matchBayer Leverkusen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.89

1.04

Benfica U19

2.89

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.04

Benfica U19 creates 178% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 10 away

2.58

creates per match

1.00

1.08

allows per match

3.20

creates per match

Benfica U19

2.58

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.00

allows per match

Benfica U19

1.08

Bayer Leverkusen U19

3.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica U19+0.00on par

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Benfica U19 or draw

89%

Benfica U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19

85%

Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19

25%

Winning margin

Benfica U19 wins by 2+

54%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Benfica U19 1+ goals

94%

Benfica U19 2+ goals

78%

Benfica U19 3+ goals

54%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

65%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

28%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Benfica U19 (draw refunded)

87%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica U19 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica U19 attack 2.58 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.89

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 1.00 + Benfica U19 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Benfica U19 scores more

75%

level

15%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

11%

Benfica U19 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Benfica U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

G. Oliveira

9'

G. Moreira↳ D. Soares

21'

24'

40'

43'

46'

G. Ferreira← F. Souza

46'

E. Datene← B. Kir

48'

Dudu↳ G. Ferreira

55'

G. M. Neves↳ Dudu

56'

I. Ferreira← T. Freitas

65'

J. Afonso← G. Moreira

65'

T. Rodrigues← Dudu

65'

M. Hololobov← M. Szep

65'

B. Ermec← K. Izekor

66'

K. Papadakis← N. Mensah

77'

M. Ndembi← R. Silva

85'

G. Minutillo← I. Massek

Benfica

Bayer

1

Schlich

17

Kurowski

30

▼

4

3

14

25

8

▼

Mensah

10

▼

Massek

9

▼

Izekor

16

▼

Szep

1

Ferreira

2

A

Soares

4

Oliveira

3

▼

Silva

5

Semedo

8

▼

Freitas

6

⚽

Neves

10

⚽2

▼

Moreira

7

Coletta

9

⚽A

▼

Souza

11

⚽A

▼

Dudu

Manager: Vítor Simões da Vinha

46'▲G. Ferreira←▼F. Souza

56'▲I. Ferreira←▼T. Freitas

65'▲J. Afonso←▼G. Moreira

65'▲T. Rodrigues←▼Dudu

77'▲M. Ndembi←▼R. Silva

Benfica U19 substitutes

12Lopes13Fernandes14Ndembi15Telehovschi16Ferreira17Afonso18Goncalves19Ferreira20Rodrigues

Manager: Kevin Brok

46'▲E. Datene←▼B. Kir

65'▲M. Hololobov←▼M. Szep

65'▲B. Ermec←▼K. Izekor

66'▲K. Papadakis←▼N. Mensah

85'▲G. Minutillo←▼I. Massek

Bayer Leverkusen U19 substitutes

21Leuchter6Papadakis11Hololobov13Datene18Koc23Cannizzaro27Ermec28Zidane47Minutillo

UEFA Youth League: Benfica U19 5–0 Bayer Leverkusen U19

Benfica U19 beat Bayer Leverkusen U19 5-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 5, 2025.

Goals: G. Moreira (9', 40'), F. Souza (43'), Dudu (48'), G. M. Neves (55').

The match was played at Benfica Campus in Seixal.

Benfica U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Benfica U19 5–0 Bayer Leverkusen U19