Benfica U19 2–1 Alverca U19: Result & Stats

Benfica U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Alverca U19

T. Soares 88', 47'

M. Grilo 45'

9/20/2025

League #1041 · Round 7Caixa Futebol Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Benfica U1974%

×Draw17%

Alverca U199%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benfica U19Expected goals in this matchAlverca U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

0.68

Benfica U19

2.31

Alverca U19

0.68

Benfica U19 creates 240% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

3.00

creates per match

1.06

0.29

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Benfica U19

3.00

Alverca U19

1.06

allows per match

Benfica U19

0.29

Alverca U19

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica U19+0.00on par

Alverca U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica U19 ↓

Alverca U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Benfica U19 or draw

91%

Benfica U19 or Alverca U19

83%

Draw or Alverca U19

26%

Winning margin

Benfica U19 wins by 2+

50%

Alverca U19 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Benfica U19 1+ goals

90%

Benfica U19 2+ goals

67%

Benfica U19 3+ goals

40%

Alverca U19 1+ goals

49%

Alverca U19 2+ goals

15%

Alverca U19 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Benfica U19 (draw refunded)

89%

Alverca U19 (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica U19 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Alverca U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica U19 attack 3.00 + Alverca U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.31

Alverca U19 attack 1.06 + Benfica U19 defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Benfica U19 scores more

74%

level

17%

Alverca U19 scores more

9%

Benfica U19 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Benfica U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

M. Grilo

47'

T. Soares

88'

T. Soares

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff