Benfica U19 3–3 Ajax U19: Result & Stats

Benfica U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Ajax U19

Goncalo Ramos 82'

Tiago Dantas 73' (pen)

Nuno Santos 13' (pen)

N. Kühn 58'

J. Ekkelenkamp 48'

B. Brobbey 45'

11/7/2018

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Caixa Futebol Campus (Seixal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Benfica U1947%

×Draw20%

Ajax U1932%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benfica U19Expected goals in this matchAjax U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.86

Benfica U19

2.27

Ajax U19

1.86

Benfica U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 20 away

2.58

creates per match

2.65

1.08

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Benfica U19

2.58

Ajax U19

2.65

allows per match

Benfica U19

1.08

Ajax U19

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica U19+0.00on par

Ajax U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica U19 ↓

Ajax U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Benfica U19 or draw

68%

Benfica U19 or Ajax U19

80%

Draw or Ajax U19

53%

Winning margin

Benfica U19 wins by 2+

28%

Ajax U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Benfica U19 1+ goals

90%

Benfica U19 2+ goals

66%

Benfica U19 3+ goals

39%

Ajax U19 1+ goals

84%

Ajax U19 2+ goals

55%

Ajax U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Benfica U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Ajax U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica U19 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

Ajax U19 away — creates 2.65, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica U19 attack 2.58 + Ajax U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.27

Ajax U19 attack 2.65 + Benfica U19 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Benfica U19 scores more

47%

level

20%

Ajax U19 scores more

32%

Benfica U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Benfica U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Nuno SantosPenalty

45'

B. Brobbey↳ N. Lang

46'

L. van Gelderen← J. Maduro

48'

J. Ekkelenkamp

58'

N. Kühn↳ N. Lang

63'

Ronaldo Camara← Tomas Tavares

63'

Tiago Gouveia← Nuno Santos

73'

Tiago DantasPenalty

74'

Ricardo Matos← Tiago Dantas

74'

S. Dest← B. Brobbey

82'

Goncalo Ramos↳ Florentino Luís

83'

Diogo Machado← Luis Lopes

89'

N. Ünüvar← N. Kühn

Benfica

Ajax

1

2

5

4

10

⚽

Ekkelenka

6

Maduro

11

A

Lang

3

▼

Maduro

8

Gravenber

7

⚽

▼

Kühn

9

⚽

▼

1

3

5

4

2

11

▼

Tavares

6

A

Luís

7

⚽

▼

Santos

10

⚽

▼

Dantas

8

⚽

Ramos

9

▼

Lopes

Manager: Renato Paiva

63'▲Ronaldo Camara←▼Tomas Tavares

63'▲Tiago Gouveia←▼Nuno Santos

74'▲Ricardo Matos←▼Tiago Dantas

83'▲Diogo Machado←▼Luis Lopes

Benfica U19 substitutes

16Camara17Gouveia18Matos14Machado12Santos15Saldanha13Penetra

Manager: J. Heitinga

46'▲L. van Gelderen←▼J. Maduro

74'▲S. Dest←▼B. Brobbey

89'▲N. Ünüvar←▼N. Kühn

Ajax U19 substitutes

15Gelderen17Dest20Ünüvar19Hansen18Taylor12Reiziger16Llansana

Match Recap: Benfica U19 vs Ajax U19

Benfica U19 and Ajax U19 drew 3-3 in UEFA Youth League on November 7, 2018.

Goals: Nuno Santos (13' pen), B. Brobbey (45'), J. Ekkelenkamp (48'), N. Kühn (58'), Tiago Dantas (73' pen), Goncalo Ramos (82').

The match was played at Caixa Futebol Campus (Seixal).

Benfica U19 vs Ajax U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Benfica U19 vs Ajax U19