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Benfica Castelo Branco vs Olhanense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Benfica Castelo Branco
Benfica Castelo Branco
FT
3 – 2
Olhanense
Olhanense
Rafa 89'
Eira 80'
S. Okitokandjo 72'
Joao Vasco 21'
Hassan 14'
9/29/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Benfica Castelo Branco54%
×Draw19%
Olhanense27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica Castelo Branco
2.67
Olhanense
1.90

Benfica Castelo Branco creates 41% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Benfica Castelo Branco
3.00
Olhanense
2.67

allows per match

Benfica Castelo Branco
1.14
Olhanense
2.33

finishing

Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par
Olhanense+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica Castelo Branco ↓

Olhanense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Benfica Castelo Branco or draw
73%
Benfica Castelo Branco or Olhanense
81%
Draw or Olhanense
46%

Winning margin

Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+
35%
Olhanense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals
93%
Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals
74%
Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals
49%
Olhanense 1+ goals
85%
Olhanense 2+ goals
56%
Olhanense 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)
66%
Olhanense (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica Castelo Branco at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Olhanense away — creates 2.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 3.00 + Olhanense defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Olhanense attack 2.67 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Benfica Castelo Branco scores more
54%
level
19%
Olhanense scores more
27%

Benfica Castelo Branco at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Benfica Castelo Branco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Hassan
21'
Joao Vasco
72'
S. Okitokandjo
80'
Eira
89'
Rafa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benfica Castelo Branco vs Olhanense

Benfica Castelo Branco beat Olhanense 3-2 in Taça de Portugal on September 29, 2019.

Goals: Hassan (14'), Joao Vasco (21'), S. Okitokandjo (72'), Eira (80'), Rafa (89').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro in Castelo Branco.