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Benfica Castelo Branco vs Condeixa — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Benfica Castelo Branco
Benfica Castelo Branco
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Condeixa
Condeixa
4/3/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 21Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Benfica Castelo Branco41%
×Draw31%
Condeixa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica Castelo Branco
1.09
Condeixa
0.86

Benfica Castelo Branco creates 27% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Benfica Castelo Branco
1.55
Condeixa
1.00

allows per match

Benfica Castelo Branco
0.73
Condeixa
0.64

finishing

Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par
Condeixa+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica Castelo Branco ↓

Condeixa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Benfica Castelo Branco or draw
72%
Benfica Castelo Branco or Condeixa
69%
Draw or Condeixa
59%

Winning margin

Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+
17%
Condeixa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals
66%
Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals
30%
Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals
10%
Condeixa 1+ goals
58%
Condeixa 2+ goals
21%
Condeixa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)
59%
Condeixa (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica Castelo Branco at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Condeixa away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 1.55 + Condeixa defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.09

Condeixa attack 1.00 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Benfica Castelo Branco scores more
41%
level
31%
Condeixa scores more
28%

Benfica Castelo Branco at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Benfica Castelo Branco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benfica Castelo Branco vs Condeixa

Condeixa beat Benfica Castelo Branco 2-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro in Castelo Branco.