Benfica Castelo Branco 7–1 Angrense: Result & Stats

Benfica Castelo Branco

7 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Angrense

9/21/2025

Taça de Portugal · Round of 128Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Benfica Castelo Branco72%

×Draw15%

Angrense13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benfica Castelo BrancoExpected goals in this matchAngrense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

1.23

Benfica Castelo Branco

3.00

Angrense

1.23

Benfica Castelo Branco creates 144% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

3.00

creates per match

1.33

1.14

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Benfica Castelo Branco

3.00

Angrense

1.33

allows per match

Benfica Castelo Branco

1.14

Angrense

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par

Angrense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica Castelo Branco ↓

Angrense →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Benfica Castelo Branco or draw

87%

Benfica Castelo Branco or Angrense

85%

Draw or Angrense

28%

Winning margin

Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+

52%

Angrense wins by 2+

Team goals

Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals

95%

Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals

79%

Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals

56%

Angrense 1+ goals

71%

Angrense 2+ goals

35%

Angrense 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)

85%

Angrense (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Benfica Castelo Branco at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Angrense away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 3.00 + Angrense defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Angrense attack 1.33 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Benfica Castelo Branco scores more

72%

level

15%

Angrense scores more

13%

Benfica Castelo Branco at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Benfica Castelo Branco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff