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Benfica Castelo Branco vs Águias do Moradal — Taça de Portugal 2018

Benfica Castelo Branco
Benfica Castelo Branco
FT
8 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Águias do Moradal
Águias do Moradal
9/11/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Benfica Castelo Branco80%
×Draw12%
Águias do Moradal8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica Castelo Branco
3.17
Águias do Moradal
0.91

Benfica Castelo Branco creates 248% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Benfica Castelo Branco
3.00
Águias do Moradal
0.67

allows per match

Benfica Castelo Branco
1.14
Águias do Moradal
3.33

finishing

Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par
Águias do Moradal+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica Castelo Branco ↓

Águias do Moradal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Benfica Castelo Branco or draw
92%
Benfica Castelo Branco or Águias do Moradal
88%
Draw or Águias do Moradal
20%

Winning margin

Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+
62%
Águias do Moradal wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals
96%
Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals
82%
Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals
60%
Águias do Moradal 1+ goals
60%
Águias do Moradal 2+ goals
23%
Águias do Moradal 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)
91%
Águias do Moradal (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica Castelo Branco at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Águias do Moradal away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 3.00 + Águias do Moradal defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.17

Águias do Moradal attack 0.67 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Benfica Castelo Branco scores more
80%
level
12%
Águias do Moradal scores more
8%

Benfica Castelo Branco at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Benfica Castelo Branco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benfica Castelo Branco vs Águias do Moradal

Benfica Castelo Branco beat Águias do Moradal 8-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro in Castelo Branco.