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Benfica B vs Vilaverdense — Segunda Liga 2018

Benfica B
Benfica B
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vilaverdense
Vilaverdense
2/24/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 23Caixa Futebol Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Benfica B52%
×Draw25%
Vilaverdense23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica B
1.63
Vilaverdense
1.00

Benfica B creates 63% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 18 away

creates per match

Benfica B
1.59
Vilaverdense
0.83

allows per match

Benfica B
1.17
Vilaverdense
1.67

finishing

Benfica B+0.00on par
Vilaverdense+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica B ↓

Vilaverdense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Benfica B or draw
77%
Benfica B or Vilaverdense
75%
Draw or Vilaverdense
48%

Winning margin

Benfica B wins by 2+
28%
Vilaverdense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Benfica B 1+ goals
80%
Benfica B 2+ goals
48%
Benfica B 3+ goals
22%
Vilaverdense 1+ goals
63%
Vilaverdense 2+ goals
26%
Vilaverdense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Benfica B (draw refunded)
69%
Vilaverdense (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica B at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.17 · 132 matches

Vilaverdense away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica B attack 1.59 + Vilaverdense defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.63

Vilaverdense attack 0.83 + Benfica B defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Benfica B scores more
52%
level
25%
Vilaverdense scores more
23%

Benfica B at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Benfica B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Benfica B 2–0 Vilaverdense

Benfica B beat Vilaverdense 2-0 in Segunda Liga on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Caixa Futebol Campus in Seixal.