Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Benfica B vs União de Leiria — Segunda Liga 2018

Benfica B
Benfica B
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
4/11/2026Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 29Benfica Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Benfica B39%
×Draw26%
União de Leiria35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica B
1.36
União de Leiria
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 51 away

creates per match

Benfica B
1.59
União de Leiria
1.37

allows per match

Benfica B
1.17
União de Leiria
1.14

finishing

Benfica B+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica B ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Benfica B or draw
65%
Benfica B or União de Leiria
74%
Draw or União de Leiria
61%

Winning margin

Benfica B wins by 2+
18%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Benfica B 1+ goals
74%
Benfica B 2+ goals
39%
Benfica B 3+ goals
16%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
72%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
36%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Benfica B (draw refunded)
53%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica B at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.17 · 132 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica B attack 1.59 + União de Leiria defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.36

União de Leiria attack 1.37 + Benfica B defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Benfica B scores more
39%
level
26%
União de Leiria scores more
35%

Benfica B at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Benfica B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Benfica B 2–2 União de Leiria

Benfica B and União de Leiria drew 2-2 in Segunda Liga on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Benfica Campus in Seixal.