Benfica B 3–3 Torreense: Result & Stats

Benfica B

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Torreense

O. Tome 90', 89'

R. Rego 58'

Leo Silva 76'

K. Zohi 60'

Costinha 45'

9/27/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 6Benfica Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Benfica B42%

×Draw27%

Torreense31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benfica BExpected goals in this matchTorreense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.15

Benfica B

1.38

Torreense

1.15

Benfica B creates 20% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 68 away

1.60

creates per match

1.15

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Benfica B

1.60

Torreense

1.15

allows per match

Benfica B

1.15

Torreense

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica B+0.00on par

Torreense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica B ↓

Torreense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Benfica B or draw

69%

Benfica B or Torreense

73%

Draw or Torreense

58%

Winning margin

Benfica B wins by 2+

20%

Torreense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Benfica B 1+ goals

75%

Benfica B 2+ goals

40%

Benfica B 3+ goals

16%

Torreense 1+ goals

68%

Torreense 2+ goals

32%

Torreense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Benfica B (draw refunded)

57%

Torreense (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica B at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 130 matches

Torreense away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica B attack 1.60 + Torreense defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.38

Torreense attack 1.15 + Benfica B defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Benfica B scores more

42%

level

27%

Torreense scores more

31%

Benfica B at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Benfica B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Leo Azevedo

45'

Costinha↳ D. Jean

46'

55'

58'

60'

63'

63'

T. Freitas← J. Veloso

63'

F. Silva← R. Rego

67'

I. Seydi← Costinha

71'

M. Pozo← K. Zohi

71'

M. Drammeh← D. Jean

74'

O. Tome← I. Lima

76'

Leo Silva↳ J. Vazquez

80'

T. de Sousa← D. Prioste

80'

J. Ipalibo← David Bruno

80'

Danilo← A. Alfaro

81'

Danilo

89'

O. Tome↳ T. Freitas

90'

O. Tome↳ L. Santos

Statistics

BenficaTorreense

Discipline

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0