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Benfica B vs Sporting CP B — Segunda Liga 2018

Benfica B
Benfica B
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
D. Prioste 34' (pen)
12/22/2025Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 15Benfica Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Benfica B45%
×Draw26%
Sporting CP B28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica B
1.45
Sporting CP B
1.09

Benfica B creates 33% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 26 away

creates per match

Benfica B
1.54
Sporting CP B
0.96

allows per match

Benfica B
1.23
Sporting CP B
1.35

finishing

Benfica B+0.00on par
Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica B ↓

Sporting CP B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Benfica B or draw
72%
Benfica B or Sporting CP B
74%
Draw or Sporting CP B
55%

Winning margin

Benfica B wins by 2+
22%
Sporting CP B wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Benfica B 1+ goals
77%
Benfica B 2+ goals
42%
Benfica B 3+ goals
18%
Sporting CP B 1+ goals
66%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
30%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Benfica B (draw refunded)
61%
Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica B at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica B attack 1.54 + Sporting CP B defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sporting CP B attack 0.96 + Benfica B defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Benfica B scores more
45%
level
26%
Sporting CP B scores more
28%

Benfica B at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Benfica B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
Mauro Couto
22'
Samuel Justo
34'
D. PriostePenalty
42'
Paulo Cardoso
43'
João Muniz
53'
J. Silva← L. Anjos
55'
M. Ferreira← J. Wynder
56'
Martim Ferreira
61'
G. Moreira← F. Bernardes de Freitas Neto
61'
I. Lima← O. Tome
73'
João Muniz
73'
João Muniz
75'
Samuel Justo
75'
Samuel Justo
77'
T. de Sousa← J. Veloso
77'
J. Trevisan← F. Silva
81'
Romulus← Bruno Ramos
81'
R. Dias← M. Couto
81'
R. Besugo← Kaua Oliveira
82'
Gonçalo Oliveira
88'
G. Silva← M. Mendonca

Statistics

BenficaSporting
Discipline
2Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards2

Segunda Liga: Benfica B 1–0 Sporting CP B

Benfica B beat Sporting CP B 1-0 in Segunda Liga on December 22, 2025.

Goals: D. Prioste (34' pen).

The match was played at Benfica Campus in Seixal.