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Benfica B vs Pacos Ferreira — Segunda Liga 2018

Benfica B
Benfica B
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Pacos Ferreira
Pacos Ferreira
10/30/2025Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 9Benfica Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Benfica B44%
×Draw27%
Pacos Ferreira29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica B
1.39
Pacos Ferreira
1.08

Benfica B creates 29% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 69 away

creates per match

Benfica B
1.59
Pacos Ferreira
1.00

allows per match

Benfica B
1.17
Pacos Ferreira
1.19

finishing

Benfica B+0.00on par
Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica B ↓

Pacos Ferreira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Benfica B or draw
71%
Benfica B or Pacos Ferreira
73%
Draw or Pacos Ferreira
56%

Winning margin

Benfica B wins by 2+
21%
Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Benfica B 1+ goals
75%
Benfica B 2+ goals
40%
Benfica B 3+ goals
16%
Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals
66%
Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals
29%
Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Benfica B (draw refunded)
60%
Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica B at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.17 · 132 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica B attack 1.59 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.39

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.00 + Benfica B defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Benfica B scores more
44%
level
27%
Pacos Ferreira scores more
29%

Benfica B at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Benfica B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Benfica B 2–1 Pacos Ferreira

Benfica B beat Pacos Ferreira 2-1 in Segunda Liga on October 30, 2025.

The match was played at Benfica Campus in Seixal.