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Benfica B vs Oliveirense — Segunda Liga 2018

Benfica B
Benfica B
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Oliveirense
Oliveirense
9/15/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 5Caixa Futebol Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Benfica B51%
×Draw25%
Oliveirense24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica B
1.63
Oliveirense
1.05

Benfica B creates 55% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 114 away

creates per match

Benfica B
1.59
Oliveirense
0.93

allows per match

Benfica B
1.17
Oliveirense
1.66

finishing

Benfica B+0.00on par
Oliveirense+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica B ↓

Oliveirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Benfica B or draw
76%
Benfica B or Oliveirense
75%
Draw or Oliveirense
49%

Winning margin

Benfica B wins by 2+
27%
Oliveirense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Benfica B 1+ goals
80%
Benfica B 2+ goals
48%
Benfica B 3+ goals
22%
Oliveirense 1+ goals
65%
Oliveirense 2+ goals
28%
Oliveirense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Benfica B (draw refunded)
68%
Oliveirense (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica B at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.17 · 132 matches

Oliveirense away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.66 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica B attack 1.59 + Oliveirense defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.63

Oliveirense attack 0.93 + Benfica B defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Benfica B scores more
51%
level
25%
Oliveirense scores more
24%

Benfica B at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Benfica B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benfica B vs Oliveirense

Benfica B and Oliveirense drew 2-2 in Segunda Liga on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Caixa Futebol Campus in Seixal.