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Benfica B vs Guimaraes B — Segunda Liga 2018

Benfica B
Benfica B
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Guimaraes B
Guimaraes B
Nuno Santos 81'
I. Šaponjić 31' (pen)
L. Rosier 64'
C. Olivares 14'
5/11/2019Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 33Caixa Futebol Campus (Seixal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Benfica B48%
×Draw24%
Guimaraes B28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica B
1.65
Guimaraes B
1.21

Benfica B creates 36% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 17 away

creates per match

Benfica B
1.54
Guimaraes B
1.18

allows per match

Benfica B
1.23
Guimaraes B
1.76

finishing

Benfica B+0.00on par
Guimaraes B+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica B ↓

Guimaraes B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Benfica B or draw
72%
Benfica B or Guimaraes B
76%
Draw or Guimaraes B
52%

Winning margin

Benfica B wins by 2+
25%
Guimaraes B wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Benfica B 1+ goals
81%
Benfica B 2+ goals
49%
Benfica B 3+ goals
23%
Guimaraes B 1+ goals
70%
Guimaraes B 2+ goals
34%
Guimaraes B 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Benfica B (draw refunded)
63%
Guimaraes B (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica B at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Guimaraes B away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica B attack 1.54 + Guimaraes B defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.65

Guimaraes B attack 1.18 + Benfica B defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Benfica B scores more
48%
level
24%
Guimaraes B scores more
28%

Benfica B at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Benfica B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
C. Olivares
16'
B. Kalaica
31'
I. ŠaponjićPenalty
32'
D. Figueira
57'
D. Martins
60'
Benny
64'
L. Rosier
81'
Nuno Santos
88'
M. Nobrega
90'
H. Shan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Benfica B 2–2 Guimaraes B

Benfica B and Guimaraes B drew 2-2 in Segunda Liga on May 11, 2019.

Goals: C. Olivares (14'), I. Šaponjić (31' pen), L. Rosier (64'), Nuno Santos (81').

The match was played at Caixa Futebol Campus (Seixal).