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Benevento vs Virtus Entella — Serie B 2018

Benevento
Benevento
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
9/29/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 6Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Benevento55%
×Draw24%
Virtus Entella21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benevento
1.69
Virtus Entella
0.94

Benevento creates 80% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 57 away

creates per match

Benevento
1.72
Virtus Entella
0.82

allows per match

Benevento
1.05
Virtus Entella
1.65

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par
Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Virtus Entella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Benevento or draw
79%
Benevento or Virtus Entella
76%
Draw or Virtus Entella
45%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+
30%
Virtus Entella wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals
82%
Benevento 2+ goals
50%
Benevento 3+ goals
24%
Virtus Entella 1+ goals
61%
Virtus Entella 2+ goals
24%
Virtus Entella 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)
72%
Virtus Entella (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Virtus Entella away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.72 + Virtus Entella defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.69

Virtus Entella attack 0.82 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Benevento scores more
55%
level
24%
Virtus Entella scores more
21%

Benevento at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Benevento 1–1 Virtus Entella

Benevento and Virtus Entella drew 1-1 in Serie B on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Benevento.