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Benevento vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Benevento
Benevento
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Spezia
Spezia
3/16/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 29Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Benevento48%
×Draw25%
Spezia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benevento
1.54
Spezia
1.08

Benevento creates 43% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 98 away

creates per match

Benevento
1.72
Spezia
1.12

allows per match

Benevento
1.05
Spezia
1.36

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par
Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Benevento or draw
73%
Benevento or Spezia
75%
Draw or Spezia
52%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+
24%
Spezia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals
79%
Benevento 2+ goals
45%
Benevento 3+ goals
20%
Spezia 1+ goals
66%
Spezia 2+ goals
29%
Spezia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)
64%
Spezia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.72 + Spezia defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.54

Spezia attack 1.12 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Benevento scores more
48%
level
25%
Spezia scores more
27%

Benevento at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Benevento 2–3 Spezia

Spezia beat Benevento 3-2 in Serie B on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Benevento.