Benevento 2–1 Pordenone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Benevento

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pordenone

12/4/2021

Serie B · Round 16Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Benevento54%

×Draw25%

Pordenone21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeneventoExpected goals in this matchPordenone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.93

Benevento

1.65

Pordenone

0.93

Benevento creates 77% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 58 away

1.72

creates per match

0.81

1.05

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Benevento

1.72

Pordenone

0.81

allows per match

Benevento

1.05

Pordenone

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par

Pordenone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Pordenone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Benevento or draw

79%

Benevento or Pordenone

75%

Draw or Pordenone

46%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+

29%

Pordenone wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals

81%

Benevento 2+ goals

49%

Benevento 3+ goals

23%

Pordenone 1+ goals

61%

Pordenone 2+ goals

24%

Pordenone 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)

72%

Pordenone (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Pordenone away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.57 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.72 + Pordenone defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.65

Pordenone attack 0.81 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Benevento scores more

54%

level

25%

Pordenone scores more

21%

Benevento at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff