Benevento 2–2 Parma: Result & Stats | Serie B

Benevento

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Parma

G. Acampora 86'

C. Ciano 48'

D. Man 42'

A. Benedyczak 7'

5/1/2023

Serie B · Round 35Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Benevento42%

×Draw26%

Parma32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeneventoExpected goals in this matchParma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.21

Benevento

1.44

Parma

1.21

Benevento creates 19% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 58 away

1.72

creates per match

1.36

1.05

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Benevento

1.72

Parma

1.36

allows per match

Benevento

1.05

Parma

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par

Parma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Parma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Benevento or draw

68%

Benevento or Parma

74%

Draw or Parma

58%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+

20%

Parma wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals

76%

Benevento 2+ goals

42%

Benevento 3+ goals

18%

Parma 1+ goals

70%

Parma 2+ goals

34%

Parma 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)

57%

Parma (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 78 matches

Parma away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.72 + Parma defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.44

Parma attack 1.36 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Benevento scores more

42%

level

26%

Parma scores more

32%

Benevento at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

C. Ciano

Benevento · F

7.9

Match Events

7'

A. Benedyczak↳ F. Vázquez

28'

Camillo Ciano

42'

D. Man↳ A. Benedyczak

46'

L. Carfora← G. Letizia

48'

C. Ciano↳ P. Schiattarella

58'

V. Mihăilă← D. Man

59'

M. Viviani← P. Schiattarella

59'

L. Zanimacchia← A. Benedyczak

59'

D. Camara← S. Sohm

67'

A. Tello← R. Improta

67'

S. Pettinari← Diego Farias

71'

Kamil Glik

78'

H. El Kaouakibi← F. Veseli

81'

G. Charpentier← F. Vázquez

83'

Elias Cobbaut

86'

G. Acampora

87'

S. Jurić← Adrián Bernabé

89'

Mattia Viviani

90+1'

Drissa Camara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeneventoParma

Overview

56%Possession44%

17Total Shots18

7Corners5

13Fouls19

Shots

17Total Shots18

6On Target6

5Off Target9

6Blocked3

10Inside Box12

7Outside Box6

Passing

56%Possession44%

465Total Passes383

368Accurate Passes297

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls19

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

5Offsides0

Serie B: Benevento 2–2 Parma

Benevento and Parma drew 2-2 in Serie B on May 1, 2023.

Goals: A. Benedyczak (7'), D. Man (42'), C. Ciano (48'), G. Acampora (86').

Benevento controlled possession (56%) and registered 17 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Benevento.

Benevento vs Parma — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Benevento 2–2 Parma