Benevento 1–0 Nuova Cosenza: Result & Stats

Benevento

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nuova Cosenza

9/21/2019

Serie B · Round 4Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Benevento53%

×Draw25%

Nuova Cosenza23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeneventoExpected goals in this matchNuova Cosenza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.98

Benevento

1.63

Nuova Cosenza

0.98

Benevento creates 66% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 134 away

1.72

creates per match

0.90

1.05

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Benevento

1.72

Nuova Cosenza

0.90

allows per match

Benevento

1.05

Nuova Cosenza

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par

Nuova Cosenza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Nuova Cosenza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Benevento or draw

77%

Benevento or Nuova Cosenza

75%

Draw or Nuova Cosenza

47%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+

28%

Nuova Cosenza wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals

80%

Benevento 2+ goals

48%

Benevento 3+ goals

22%

Nuova Cosenza 1+ goals

62%

Nuova Cosenza 2+ goals

26%

Nuova Cosenza 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)

70%

Nuova Cosenza (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Nuova Cosenza away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.54 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.72 + Nuova Cosenza defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.63

Nuova Cosenza attack 0.90 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Benevento scores more

53%

level

25%

Nuova Cosenza scores more

23%

Benevento at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff