Benevento 3–1 Monza: Result & Stats | Serie B

Benevento

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Monza

G. Moncini 66'

A. Tello 40'

R. Insigne 7'

M. Valoti 47' (pen)

1/13/2022

Serie B · Round 18Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Benevento42%

×Draw26%

Monza31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeneventoExpected goals in this matchMonza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.18

Benevento

1.41

Monza

1.18

Benevento creates 19% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 61 away

1.72

creates per match

1.31

1.05

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Benevento

1.72

Monza

1.31

allows per match

Benevento

1.05

Monza

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par

Monza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Monza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Benevento or draw

69%

Benevento or Monza

74%

Draw or Monza

58%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+

20%

Monza wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals

76%

Benevento 2+ goals

41%

Benevento 3+ goals

17%

Monza 1+ goals

69%

Monza 2+ goals

33%

Monza 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)

57%

Monza (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Monza away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.72 + Monza defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.41

Monza attack 1.31 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Benevento scores more

42%

level

26%

Monza scores more

31%

Benevento at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

R. Insigne

Benevento · F

8.0

Match Events

5'

7'

12'

28'

28'

33'

33'

Roberto InsignePenalty cancelled

34'

37'

38'

40'

46'

Pedro Pereira← A. Colpani

46'

S. Molina← P. Ciurria

47'

M. ValotiPenalty

66'

G. Moncini↳ E. Masciangelo

69'

D. Foulon← G. Moncini

69'

M. Sampirisi← G. Donati

70'

G. Ramírez← M. Valoti

76'

E. Brignola← A. Tello

76'

A. Talia← G. Acampora

76'

A. Favilli← A. Barberis

81'

Mario Sampirisi

89'

B. Umile← R. Insigne

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeneventoMonza

Overview

64%Possession36%

18Total Shots7

2Corners4

11Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots7

7On Target2

9Off Target4

2Blocked1

14Inside Box4

4Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

578Total Passes317

529Accurate Passes246

92%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls13

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards2

2Offsides2