Benevento 1–5 Juventus U23: Result & Stats

Benevento

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Juventus U23

5/4/2025

Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundStadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Benevento20%

×Draw20%

Juventus U2361%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeneventoExpected goals in this matchJuventus U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

2.30

Benevento

1.25

Juventus U23

2.30

Juventus U23 creates 84% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

2.60

2.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Benevento

1.50

Juventus U23

2.60

allows per match

Benevento

2.00

Juventus U23

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par

Juventus U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Juventus U23 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Benevento or draw

39%

Benevento or Juventus U23

80%

Draw or Juventus U23

80%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+

8%

Juventus U23 wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals

71%

Benevento 2+ goals

36%

Benevento 3+ goals

13%

Juventus U23 1+ goals

90%

Juventus U23 2+ goals

67%

Juventus U23 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)

25%

Juventus U23 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Juventus U23 away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.50 + Juventus U23 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Juventus U23 attack 2.60 + Benevento defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Benevento scores more

20%

level

20%

Juventus U23 scores more

61%

Juventus U23 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Juventus U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff