Benevento 0–3 Hellas Verona: Result & Stats

Benevento

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Hellas Verona

3/3/2021

Serie A · Round 25Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Benevento32%

×Draw25%

Hellas Verona43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeneventoExpected goals in this matchHellas Verona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.55

Benevento

1.31

Hellas Verona

1.55

Hellas Verona creates 18% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 102 away

1.04

creates per match

1.02

2.09

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Benevento

1.04

Hellas Verona

1.02

allows per match

Benevento

2.09

Hellas Verona

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par

Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Hellas Verona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Benevento or draw

57%

Benevento or Hellas Verona

75%

Draw or Hellas Verona

68%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+

14%

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals

73%

Benevento 2+ goals

38%

Benevento 3+ goals

14%

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

79%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

46%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)

43%

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.04, concedes 2.09 · 23 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.57 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.04 + Hellas Verona defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Hellas Verona attack 1.02 + Benevento defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Benevento scores more

32%

level

25%

Hellas Verona scores more

43%

Hellas Verona at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff