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Benevento U19 vs Spezia U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Benevento U19
Benevento U19
FT
3 – 2
Spezia U19
Spezia U19
11/4/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 7Campo Sportivo Avellola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Benevento U1947%
×Draw23%
Spezia U1930%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benevento U19
1.85
Spezia U19
1.43

Benevento U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 83 away

creates per match

Benevento U19
2.10
Spezia U19
1.37

allows per match

Benevento U19
1.48
Spezia U19
1.59

finishing

Benevento U19+0.00on par
Spezia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento U19 ↓

Spezia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Benevento U19 or draw
70%
Benevento U19 or Spezia U19
77%
Draw or Spezia U19
53%

Winning margin

Benevento U19 wins by 2+
26%
Spezia U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Benevento U19 1+ goals
84%
Benevento U19 2+ goals
55%
Benevento U19 3+ goals
28%
Spezia U19 1+ goals
76%
Spezia U19 2+ goals
42%
Spezia U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Benevento U19 (draw refunded)
61%
Spezia U19 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento U19 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.48 · 84 matches

Spezia U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.59 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento U19 attack 2.10 + Spezia U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.85

Spezia U19 attack 1.37 + Benevento U19 defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Benevento U19 scores more
47%
level
23%
Spezia U19 scores more
30%

Benevento U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Benevento U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Benevento U19 3–2 Spezia U19

Benevento U19 beat Spezia U19 3-2 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Avellola in Benevento.