Bendel Insurance 1–0 Sunshine Stars: Result & Stats

Bendel Insurance

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sunshine Stars

12/10/2023

NPFL · Round 13Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Bendel Insurance59%

×Draw28%

Sunshine Stars13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bendel InsuranceExpected goals in this matchSunshine Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.49

Bendel Insurance

1.38

Sunshine Stars

0.49

Bendel Insurance creates 182% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 110 away

1.31

creates per match

0.48

0.51

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Bendel Insurance

1.31

Sunshine Stars

0.48

allows per match

Bendel Insurance

0.51

Sunshine Stars

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bendel Insurance+0.00on par

Sunshine Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bendel Insurance ↓

Sunshine Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Bendel Insurance or draw

87%

Bendel Insurance or Sunshine Stars

72%

Draw or Sunshine Stars

41%

Winning margin

Bendel Insurance wins by 2+

30%

Sunshine Stars wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Bendel Insurance 1+ goals

75%

Bendel Insurance 2+ goals

40%

Bendel Insurance 3+ goals

16%

Sunshine Stars 1+ goals

39%

Sunshine Stars 2+ goals

9%

Sunshine Stars 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Bendel Insurance (draw refunded)

82%

Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bendel Insurance at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.51 · 80 matches

Sunshine Stars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.44 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bendel Insurance attack 1.31 + Sunshine Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sunshine Stars attack 0.48 + Bendel Insurance defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bendel Insurance scores more

59%

level

28%

Sunshine Stars scores more

13%

Bendel Insurance at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bendel Insurance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff