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Bendel Insurance vs Shooting Stars — NPFL 2019

Bendel Insurance
Bendel Insurance
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shooting Stars
Shooting Stars
E. Ogbonda 79'
I. Falke 8' (OG)
10/7/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 2Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Bendel Insurance58%
×Draw27%
Shooting Stars14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bendel Insurance
1.41
Shooting Stars
0.55

Bendel Insurance creates 156% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 87 away

creates per match

Bendel Insurance
1.31
Shooting Stars
0.60

allows per match

Bendel Insurance
0.51
Shooting Stars
1.51

finishing

Bendel Insurance+0.00on par
Shooting Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bendel Insurance ↓

Shooting Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bendel Insurance or draw
86%
Bendel Insurance or Shooting Stars
73%
Draw or Shooting Stars
42%

Winning margin

Bendel Insurance wins by 2+
30%
Shooting Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bendel Insurance 1+ goals
76%
Bendel Insurance 2+ goals
41%
Bendel Insurance 3+ goals
17%
Shooting Stars 1+ goals
42%
Shooting Stars 2+ goals
11%
Shooting Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bendel Insurance (draw refunded)
80%
Shooting Stars (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bendel Insurance at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.51 · 80 matches

Shooting Stars away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.51 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bendel Insurance attack 1.31 + Shooting Stars defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.41

Shooting Stars attack 0.60 + Bendel Insurance defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bendel Insurance scores more
58%
level
27%
Shooting Stars scores more
14%

Bendel Insurance at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bendel Insurance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
I. FalkeOwn goal
45'
M. Taofeeq
45+3'
A. Agahowa
79'
E. Ogbonda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Bendel Insurance 2–0 Shooting Stars

Bendel Insurance beat Shooting Stars 2-0 in NPFL on October 7, 2023.

Goals: I. Falke (8' o.g.), E. Ogbonda (79').

The match was played at Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium in Benin City.