Bendel Insurance 0–1 Nasarawa United

Bendel Insurance

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nasarawa United

10/4/2025

NPFL · Round 7Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Bendel Insurance57%

×Draw27%

Nasarawa United16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bendel InsuranceExpected goals in this matchNasarawa United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.60

Bendel Insurance

1.43

Nasarawa United

0.60

Bendel Insurance creates 138% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 108 away

1.31

creates per match

0.69

0.51

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Bendel Insurance

1.31

Nasarawa United

0.69

allows per match

Bendel Insurance

0.51

Nasarawa United

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bendel Insurance+0.00on par

Nasarawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bendel Insurance ↓

Nasarawa United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bendel Insurance or draw

84%

Bendel Insurance or Nasarawa United

73%

Draw or Nasarawa United

43%

Winning margin

Bendel Insurance wins by 2+

29%

Nasarawa United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bendel Insurance 1+ goals

76%

Bendel Insurance 2+ goals

42%

Bendel Insurance 3+ goals

17%

Nasarawa United 1+ goals

45%

Nasarawa United 2+ goals

12%

Nasarawa United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Bendel Insurance (draw refunded)

79%

Nasarawa United (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bendel Insurance at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.51 · 80 matches

Nasarawa United away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.55 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bendel Insurance attack 1.31 + Nasarawa United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Nasarawa United attack 0.69 + Bendel Insurance defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bendel Insurance scores more

57%

level

27%

Nasarawa United scores more

16%

Bendel Insurance at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bendel Insurance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff