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Bendel Insurance vs Kano Pillars — NPFL 2019

Bendel Insurance
Bendel Insurance
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kano Pillars
Kano Pillars
11/9/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 11Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Bendel Insurance58%
×Draw27%
Kano Pillars15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bendel Insurance
1.43
Kano Pillars
0.57

Bendel Insurance creates 151% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 121 away

creates per match

Bendel Insurance
1.31
Kano Pillars
0.64

allows per match

Bendel Insurance
0.51
Kano Pillars
1.54

finishing

Bendel Insurance+0.00on par
Kano Pillars+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bendel Insurance ↓

Kano Pillars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bendel Insurance or draw
85%
Bendel Insurance or Kano Pillars
73%
Draw or Kano Pillars
42%

Winning margin

Bendel Insurance wins by 2+
30%
Kano Pillars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bendel Insurance 1+ goals
76%
Bendel Insurance 2+ goals
42%
Bendel Insurance 3+ goals
17%
Kano Pillars 1+ goals
43%
Kano Pillars 2+ goals
11%
Kano Pillars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bendel Insurance (draw refunded)
80%
Kano Pillars (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bendel Insurance at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.51 · 80 matches

Kano Pillars away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.54 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bendel Insurance attack 1.31 + Kano Pillars defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kano Pillars attack 0.64 + Bendel Insurance defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bendel Insurance scores more
58%
level
27%
Kano Pillars scores more
15%

Bendel Insurance at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bendel Insurance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bendel Insurance vs Kano Pillars

Kano Pillars beat Bendel Insurance 1-0 in NPFL on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium in Benin City.