Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bendel Insurance vs Doma United — NPFL 2019

Bendel Insurance
Bendel Insurance
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Doma United
Doma United
3/17/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 26Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Bendel Insurance63%
×Draw26%
Doma United12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bendel Insurance
1.50
Doma United
0.48

Bendel Insurance creates 213% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 28 away

creates per match

Bendel Insurance
1.31
Doma United
0.46

allows per match

Bendel Insurance
0.51
Doma United
1.68

finishing

Bendel Insurance+0.00on par
Doma United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bendel Insurance ↓

Doma United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bendel Insurance or draw
88%
Bendel Insurance or Doma United
74%
Draw or Doma United
37%

Winning margin

Bendel Insurance wins by 2+
33%
Doma United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bendel Insurance 1+ goals
78%
Bendel Insurance 2+ goals
44%
Bendel Insurance 3+ goals
19%
Doma United 1+ goals
38%
Doma United 2+ goals
8%
Doma United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Bendel Insurance (draw refunded)
84%
Doma United (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bendel Insurance at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.51 · 80 matches

Doma United away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bendel Insurance attack 1.31 + Doma United defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

Doma United attack 0.46 + Bendel Insurance defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Bendel Insurance scores more
63%
level
26%
Doma United scores more
12%

Bendel Insurance at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bendel Insurance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Bendel Insurance 4–0 Doma United

Bendel Insurance beat Doma United 4-0 in NPFL on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium in Benin City.