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Bendel Insurance vs Akwa United — NPFL 2019

Bendel Insurance
Bendel Insurance
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Akwa United
Akwa United
5/7/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 36Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Bendel Insurance54%
×Draw29%
Akwa United17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bendel Insurance
1.29
Akwa United
0.58

Bendel Insurance creates 122% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 111 away

creates per match

Bendel Insurance
1.31
Akwa United
0.66

allows per match

Bendel Insurance
0.51
Akwa United
1.28

finishing

Bendel Insurance+0.00on par
Akwa United+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bendel Insurance ↓

Akwa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bendel Insurance or draw
83%
Bendel Insurance or Akwa United
71%
Draw or Akwa United
46%

Winning margin

Bendel Insurance wins by 2+
26%
Akwa United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bendel Insurance 1+ goals
72%
Bendel Insurance 2+ goals
37%
Bendel Insurance 3+ goals
14%
Akwa United 1+ goals
44%
Akwa United 2+ goals
12%
Akwa United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bendel Insurance (draw refunded)
76%
Akwa United (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bendel Insurance at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.51 · 80 matches

Akwa United away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.28 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bendel Insurance attack 1.31 + Akwa United defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Akwa United attack 0.66 + Bendel Insurance defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bendel Insurance scores more
54%
level
29%
Akwa United scores more
17%

Bendel Insurance at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bendel Insurance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Bendel Insurance 1–0 Akwa United

Bendel Insurance beat Akwa United 1-0 in NPFL on May 7, 2025.

The match was played at Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium in Benin City.