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Benburb vs Vale of Leithen — FA Cup 2019

Benburb
Benburb
FT
0 – 3
Vale of Leithen
Vale of Leithen
8/31/2024FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundNew Tinto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Benburb64%
×Draw17%
Vale of Leithen19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benburb
2.92
Vale of Leithen
1.58

Benburb creates 85% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Benburb
1.50
Vale of Leithen
1.17

allows per match

Benburb
2.00
Vale of Leithen
4.33

finishing

Benburb+0.00on par
Vale of Leithen+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benburb ↓

Vale of Leithen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Benburb or draw
81%
Benburb or Vale of Leithen
83%
Draw or Vale of Leithen
36%

Winning margin

Benburb wins by 2+
44%
Vale of Leithen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Benburb 1+ goals
94%
Benburb 2+ goals
78%
Benburb 3+ goals
55%
Vale of Leithen 1+ goals
79%
Vale of Leithen 2+ goals
47%
Vale of Leithen 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Benburb (draw refunded)
77%
Vale of Leithen (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benburb at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Vale of Leithen away — creates 1.17, concedes 4.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benburb attack 1.50 + Vale of Leithen defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.92

Vale of Leithen attack 1.17 + Benburb defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Benburb scores more
64%
level
17%
Vale of Leithen scores more
19%

Benburb at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Benburb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benburb vs Vale of Leithen

Vale of Leithen beat Benburb 3-0 in FA Cup on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at New Tinto Park in Glasgow.