Benburb 2–0 Easthouses Lily: Result & Stats

Benburb

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Easthouses Lily

8/30/2025

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Benburb54%

×Draw21%

Easthouses Lily25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BenburbExpected goals in this matchEasthouses Lily

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.38

Benburb

2.13

Easthouses Lily

1.38

Benburb creates 54% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

0.75

2.00

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Benburb

1.50

Easthouses Lily

0.75

allows per match

Benburb

2.00

Easthouses Lily

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benburb+0.00on par

Easthouses Lily+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benburb ↓

Easthouses Lily →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Benburb or draw

75%

Benburb or Easthouses Lily

79%

Draw or Easthouses Lily

46%

Winning margin

Benburb wins by 2+

33%

Easthouses Lily wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Benburb 1+ goals

88%

Benburb 2+ goals

63%

Benburb 3+ goals

35%

Easthouses Lily 1+ goals

75%

Easthouses Lily 2+ goals

40%

Easthouses Lily 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Benburb (draw refunded)

69%

Easthouses Lily (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Benburb at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Easthouses Lily away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Benburb attack 1.50 + Easthouses Lily defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.13

Easthouses Lily attack 0.75 + Benburb defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Benburb scores more

54%

level

21%

Easthouses Lily scores more

25%

Benburb at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Benburb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff