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Benburb vs Dundonald Bluebell — FA Cup 2019

Benburb
Benburb
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Dundonald Bluebell
Dundonald Bluebell
9/17/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundNew Tinto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Benburb62%
×Draw17%
Dundonald Bluebell21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benburb
2.92
Dundonald Bluebell
1.67

Benburb creates 75% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Benburb
1.50
Dundonald Bluebell
1.33

allows per match

Benburb
2.00
Dundonald Bluebell
4.33

finishing

Benburb+0.00on par
Dundonald Bluebell+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benburb ↓

Dundonald Bluebell →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Benburb or draw
79%
Benburb or Dundonald Bluebell
83%
Draw or Dundonald Bluebell
38%

Winning margin

Benburb wins by 2+
43%
Dundonald Bluebell wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Benburb 1+ goals
94%
Benburb 2+ goals
78%
Benburb 3+ goals
55%
Dundonald Bluebell 1+ goals
81%
Dundonald Bluebell 2+ goals
50%
Dundonald Bluebell 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Benburb (draw refunded)
75%
Dundonald Bluebell (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benburb at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Dundonald Bluebell away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benburb attack 1.50 + Dundonald Bluebell defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.92

Dundonald Bluebell attack 1.33 + Benburb defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Benburb scores more
62%
level
17%
Dundonald Bluebell scores more
21%

Benburb at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Benburb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Benburb 4–2 Dundonald Bluebell

Benburb beat Dundonald Bluebell 4-2 in FA Cup on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at New Tinto Park in Glasgow.