Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Benátky nad Jizerou vs Ústí nad Orlicí — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Benátky nad Jizerou
Benátky nad Jizerou
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Ústí nad Orlicí
Ústí nad Orlicí
8/11/20243. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 1Letní Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Benátky nad Jizerou51%
×Draw25%
Ústí nad Orlicí25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benátky nad Jizerou
1.65
Ústí nad Orlicí
1.07

Benátky nad Jizerou creates 54% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 50 away

creates per match

Benátky nad Jizerou
1.41
Ústí nad Orlicí
0.92

allows per match

Benátky nad Jizerou
1.22
Ústí nad Orlicí
1.88

finishing

Benátky nad Jizerou+0.00on par
Ústí nad Orlicí+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benátky nad Jizerou ↓

Ústí nad Orlicí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Benátky nad Jizerou or draw
75%
Benátky nad Jizerou or Ústí nad Orlicí
75%
Draw or Ústí nad Orlicí
49%

Winning margin

Benátky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
27%
Ústí nad Orlicí wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Benátky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
81%
Benátky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
49%
Benátky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
23%
Ústí nad Orlicí 1+ goals
66%
Ústí nad Orlicí 2+ goals
29%
Ústí nad Orlicí 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Benátky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
67%
Ústí nad Orlicí (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benátky nad Jizerou at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Ústí nad Orlicí away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.88 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benátky nad Jizerou attack 1.41 + Ústí nad Orlicí defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ústí nad Orlicí attack 0.92 + Benátky nad Jizerou defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Benátky nad Jizerou scores more
51%
level
25%
Ústí nad Orlicí scores more
25%

Benátky nad Jizerou at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Benátky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benátky nad Jizerou vs Ústí nad Orlicí

Ústí nad Orlicí beat Benátky nad Jizerou 2-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Letní Stadion in Milevsko.