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Benátky nad Jizerou vs Tochovice — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Benátky nad Jizerou
Benátky nad Jizerou
FT
1 – 1
Tochovice
Tochovice
10/30/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 14Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Benátky nad Jizerou69%
×Draw17%
Tochovice14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benátky nad Jizerou
2.44
Tochovice
0.99

Benátky nad Jizerou creates 146% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 15 away

creates per match

Benátky nad Jizerou
2.40
Tochovice
1.13

allows per match

Benátky nad Jizerou
0.85
Tochovice
2.47

finishing

Benátky nad Jizerou+0.00on par
Tochovice+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benátky nad Jizerou ↓

Tochovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Benátky nad Jizerou or draw
86%
Benátky nad Jizerou or Tochovice
83%
Draw or Tochovice
31%

Winning margin

Benátky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
46%
Tochovice wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Benátky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
91%
Benátky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
70%
Benátky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
43%
Tochovice 1+ goals
63%
Tochovice 2+ goals
26%
Tochovice 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Benátky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
83%
Tochovice (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benátky nad Jizerou at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.85 · 55 matches

Tochovice away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benátky nad Jizerou attack 2.40 + Tochovice defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.44

Tochovice attack 1.13 + Benátky nad Jizerou defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Benátky nad Jizerou scores more
69%
level
17%
Tochovice scores more
14%

Benátky nad Jizerou at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Benátky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Benátky nad Jizerou 1–1 Tochovice

Benátky nad Jizerou and Tochovice drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Benátky nad Jizerou.