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Benátky nad Jizerou vs Sparta Kutná Hora — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Benátky nad Jizerou
Benátky nad Jizerou
PST
15:00
Sparta Kutná Hora
Sparta Kutná Hora
5/31/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 28Hřiště FC Horky (Horky nad Jizerou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Benátky nad Jizerou79%
×Draw12%
Sparta Kutná Hora8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benátky nad Jizerou
3.17
Sparta Kutná Hora
0.96

Benátky nad Jizerou creates 230% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 27 away

creates per match

Benátky nad Jizerou
2.40
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.07

allows per match

Benátky nad Jizerou
0.85
Sparta Kutná Hora
3.93

finishing

Benátky nad Jizerou+0.00on par
Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benátky nad Jizerou ↓

Sparta Kutná Hora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Benátky nad Jizerou or draw
92%
Benátky nad Jizerou or Sparta Kutná Hora
88%
Draw or Sparta Kutná Hora
21%

Winning margin

Benátky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
61%
Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Benátky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
96%
Benátky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
82%
Benátky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
60%
Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals
62%
Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals
25%
Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Benátky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
91%
Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benátky nad Jizerou at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.85 · 55 matches

Sparta Kutná Hora away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.93 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benátky nad Jizerou attack 2.40 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 3.17

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.07 + Benátky nad Jizerou defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Benátky nad Jizerou scores more
79%
level
12%
Sparta Kutná Hora scores more
8%

Benátky nad Jizerou at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Benátky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Benátky nad Jizerou face Sparta Kutná Hora (4. liga - Divizie C)

4. liga - Divizie C returns with Benátky nad Jizerou hosting Sparta Kutná Hora. Match starts May 31, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Benátky nad Jizerou host Sparta Kutná Hora at Hřiště FC Horky (Horky nad Jizerou).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.