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Benátky nad Jizerou vs Polaban Nymburk — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Benátky nad Jizerou
Benátky nad Jizerou
FT
5 – 0
Polaban Nymburk
Polaban Nymburk
11/10/20194. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 14Hřiště FC Horky (Horky nad Jizerou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Benátky nad Jizerou81%
×Draw13%
Polaban Nymburk6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benátky nad Jizerou
2.66
Polaban Nymburk
0.59

Benátky nad Jizerou creates 351% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 12 away

creates per match

Benátky nad Jizerou
2.40
Polaban Nymburk
0.33

allows per match

Benátky nad Jizerou
0.85
Polaban Nymburk
2.92

finishing

Benátky nad Jizerou+0.00on par
Polaban Nymburk+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benátky nad Jizerou ↓

Polaban Nymburk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Benátky nad Jizerou or draw
94%
Benátky nad Jizerou or Polaban Nymburk
87%
Draw or Polaban Nymburk
19%

Winning margin

Benátky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
60%
Polaban Nymburk wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Benátky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
93%
Benátky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
74%
Benátky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
49%
Polaban Nymburk 1+ goals
45%
Polaban Nymburk 2+ goals
12%
Polaban Nymburk 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Benátky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
93%
Polaban Nymburk (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benátky nad Jizerou at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.85 · 55 matches

Polaban Nymburk away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benátky nad Jizerou attack 2.40 + Polaban Nymburk defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.66

Polaban Nymburk attack 0.33 + Benátky nad Jizerou defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Benátky nad Jizerou scores more
81%
level
13%
Polaban Nymburk scores more
6%

Benátky nad Jizerou at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Benátky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Benátky nad Jizerou 5 – 0 Polaban Nymburk

Benátky nad Jizerou beat Polaban Nymburk 5-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Hřiště FC Horky (Horky nad Jizerou).