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Benátky nad Jizerou vs Ostrá — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Benátky nad Jizerou
Benátky nad Jizerou
PST
15:00
Ostrá
Ostrá
5/3/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 24Hřiště FC Horky (Horky nad Jizerou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Benátky nad Jizerou55%
×Draw22%
Ostrá23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benátky nad Jizerou
1.95
Ostrá
1.18

Benátky nad Jizerou creates 65% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 6 away

creates per match

Benátky nad Jizerou
2.40
Ostrá
1.50

allows per match

Benátky nad Jizerou
0.85
Ostrá
1.50

finishing

Benátky nad Jizerou+0.00on par
Ostrá+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benátky nad Jizerou ↓

Ostrá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Benátky nad Jizerou or draw
77%
Benátky nad Jizerou or Ostrá
78%
Draw or Ostrá
45%

Winning margin

Benátky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
32%
Ostrá wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Benátky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
86%
Benátky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
58%
Benátky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
31%
Ostrá 1+ goals
69%
Ostrá 2+ goals
33%
Ostrá 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Benátky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
71%
Ostrá (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benátky nad Jizerou at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.85 · 55 matches

Ostrá away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benátky nad Jizerou attack 2.40 + Ostrá defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.95

Ostrá attack 1.50 + Benátky nad Jizerou defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Benátky nad Jizerou scores more
55%
level
22%
Ostrá scores more
23%

Benátky nad Jizerou at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Benátky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Benátky nad Jizerou vs Ostrá — Match Preview

Benátky nad Jizerou face Ostrá on May 3, 2020 in this 4. liga - Divizie C fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Benátky nad Jizerou host Ostrá at Hřiště FC Horky (Horky nad Jizerou).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.