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Benátky nad Jizerou vs Horky nad Jizerou — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Benátky nad Jizerou
Benátky nad Jizerou
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Horky nad Jizerou
Horky nad Jizerou
6/18/20224. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 30Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Benátky nad Jizerou72%
×Draw16%
Horky nad Jizerou12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benátky nad Jizerou
2.52
Horky nad Jizerou
0.91

Benátky nad Jizerou creates 177% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 25 away

creates per match

Benátky nad Jizerou
2.40
Horky nad Jizerou
0.96

allows per match

Benátky nad Jizerou
0.85
Horky nad Jizerou
2.64

finishing

Benátky nad Jizerou+0.00on par
Horky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benátky nad Jizerou ↓

Horky nad Jizerou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Benátky nad Jizerou or draw
88%
Benátky nad Jizerou or Horky nad Jizerou
84%
Draw or Horky nad Jizerou
28%

Winning margin

Benátky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
50%
Horky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Benátky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
92%
Benátky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
71%
Benátky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
45%
Horky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
60%
Horky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
23%
Horky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Benátky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
86%
Horky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benátky nad Jizerou at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.85 · 55 matches

Horky nad Jizerou away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benátky nad Jizerou attack 2.40 + Horky nad Jizerou defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.52

Horky nad Jizerou attack 0.96 + Benátky nad Jizerou defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Benátky nad Jizerou scores more
72%
level
16%
Horky nad Jizerou scores more
12%

Benátky nad Jizerou at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Benátky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Benátky nad Jizerou 5–1 Horky nad Jizerou

Benátky nad Jizerou beat Horky nad Jizerou 5-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Benátky nad Jizerou.