Ben Aknoun 0–1 Paradou AC: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Ben Aknoun

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Paradou AC

11/18/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 6Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ben Aknoun42%

×Draw26%

Paradou AC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ben AknounExpected goals in this matchParadou AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.19

Ben Aknoun

1.41

Paradou AC

1.19

Ben Aknoun creates 18% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 121 away

1.50

creates per match

1.08

1.30

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Ben Aknoun

1.50

Paradou AC

1.08

allows per match

Ben Aknoun

1.30

Paradou AC

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ben Aknoun+0.00on par

Paradou AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ben Aknoun ↓

Paradou AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ben Aknoun or draw

68%

Ben Aknoun or Paradou AC

74%

Draw or Paradou AC

58%

Winning margin

Ben Aknoun wins by 2+

20%

Paradou AC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ben Aknoun 1+ goals

76%

Ben Aknoun 2+ goals

41%

Ben Aknoun 3+ goals

17%

Paradou AC 1+ goals

70%

Paradou AC 2+ goals

33%

Paradou AC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ben Aknoun (draw refunded)

57%

Paradou AC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ben Aknoun at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Paradou AC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.32 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ben Aknoun attack 1.50 + Paradou AC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Paradou AC attack 1.08 + Ben Aknoun defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ben Aknoun scores more

42%

level

26%

Paradou AC scores more

32%

Ben Aknoun at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ben Aknoun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff