Ben Aknoun 2–2 Olympique Akbou: Result & Stats

Ben Aknoun

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Olympique Akbou

1/8/2026

Ligue 1 · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ben Aknoun41%

×Draw27%

Olympique Akbou31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ben AknounExpected goals in this matchOlympique Akbou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.10

Ben Aknoun

1.31

Olympique Akbou

1.10

Ben Aknoun creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

1.50

creates per match

0.90

1.30

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Ben Aknoun

1.50

Olympique Akbou

0.90

allows per match

Ben Aknoun

1.30

Olympique Akbou

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ben Aknoun+0.00on par

Olympique Akbou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ben Aknoun ↓

Olympique Akbou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ben Aknoun or draw

69%

Ben Aknoun or Olympique Akbou

73%

Draw or Olympique Akbou

59%

Winning margin

Ben Aknoun wins by 2+

19%

Olympique Akbou wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ben Aknoun 1+ goals

73%

Ben Aknoun 2+ goals

38%

Ben Aknoun 3+ goals

14%

Olympique Akbou 1+ goals

67%

Olympique Akbou 2+ goals

30%

Olympique Akbou 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ben Aknoun (draw refunded)

57%

Olympique Akbou (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ben Aknoun at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Olympique Akbou away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ben Aknoun attack 1.50 + Olympique Akbou defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Olympique Akbou attack 0.90 + Ben Aknoun defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ben Aknoun scores more

41%

level

27%

Olympique Akbou scores more

31%

Ben Aknoun at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ben Aknoun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff