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Ben Aknoun vs MC Alger — Ligue 1 2018

Ben Aknoun
Ben Aknoun
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
MC Alger
MC Alger
4/21/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 1820 August 1955 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ben Aknoun39%
×Draw28%
MC Alger33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ben Aknoun
1.22
MC Alger
1.11

Ben Aknoun creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 124 away

creates per match

Ben Aknoun
1.50
MC Alger
0.92

allows per match

Ben Aknoun
1.30
MC Alger
0.94

finishing

Ben Aknoun+0.00on par
MC Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ben Aknoun ↓

MC Alger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ben Aknoun or draw
67%
Ben Aknoun or MC Alger
72%
Draw or MC Alger
61%

Winning margin

Ben Aknoun wins by 2+
17%
MC Alger wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ben Aknoun 1+ goals
70%
Ben Aknoun 2+ goals
34%
Ben Aknoun 3+ goals
12%
MC Alger 1+ goals
67%
MC Alger 2+ goals
30%
MC Alger 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ben Aknoun (draw refunded)
54%
MC Alger (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ben Aknoun at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

MC Alger away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.94 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ben Aknoun attack 1.50 + MC Alger defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.22

MC Alger attack 0.92 + Ben Aknoun defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ben Aknoun scores more
39%
level
28%
MC Alger scores more
33%

Ben Aknoun at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ben Aknoun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ben Aknoun vs MC Alger

MC Alger beat Ben Aknoun 3-2 in Ligue 1 on April 21, 2026.

The match was played at 20 August 1955 Stadium in Algiers.