Ben Aknoun 1–0 ES Setif: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Ben Aknoun

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ES Setif

6/7/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 28Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ben Aknoun44%

×Draw27%

ES Setif29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ben AknounExpected goals in this matchES Setif

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.09

Ben Aknoun

1.39

ES Setif

1.09

Ben Aknoun creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 122 away

1.50

creates per match

0.89

1.30

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Ben Aknoun

1.50

ES Setif

0.89

allows per match

Ben Aknoun

1.30

ES Setif

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ben Aknoun+0.00on par

ES Setif+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ben Aknoun ↓

ES Setif →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ben Aknoun or draw

71%

Ben Aknoun or ES Setif

73%

Draw or ES Setif

56%

Winning margin

Ben Aknoun wins by 2+

21%

ES Setif wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ben Aknoun 1+ goals

75%

Ben Aknoun 2+ goals

40%

Ben Aknoun 3+ goals

16%

ES Setif 1+ goals

66%

ES Setif 2+ goals

30%

ES Setif 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ben Aknoun (draw refunded)

60%

ES Setif (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ben Aknoun at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

ES Setif away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.27 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ben Aknoun attack 1.50 + ES Setif defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

ES Setif attack 0.89 + Ben Aknoun defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ben Aknoun scores more

44%

level

27%

ES Setif scores more

29%

Ben Aknoun at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ben Aknoun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff