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Bembla vs Stade Tunisien — Ligue 2 2020

Bembla
Bembla
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stade Tunisien
Stade Tunisien
3/13/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 10Bembla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bembla28%
×Draw33%
Stade Tunisien39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bembla
0.78
Stade Tunisien
0.97

Stade Tunisien creates 24% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

creates per match

Bembla
1.06
Stade Tunisien
1.13

allows per match

Bembla
0.81
Stade Tunisien
0.50

finishing

Bembla+0.00on par
Stade Tunisien+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bembla ↓

Stade Tunisien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–117%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Bembla or draw
61%
Bembla or Stade Tunisien
67%
Draw or Stade Tunisien
72%

Winning margin

Bembla wins by 2+
9%
Stade Tunisien wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bembla 1+ goals
54%
Bembla 2+ goals
18%
Bembla 3+ goals
4%
Stade Tunisien 1+ goals
62%
Stade Tunisien 2+ goals
25%
Stade Tunisien 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bembla (draw refunded)
42%
Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bembla at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Stade Tunisien away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bembla attack 1.06 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.78

Stade Tunisien attack 1.13 + Bembla defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bembla scores more
28%
level
33%
Stade Tunisien scores more
39%

Stade Tunisien at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stade Tunisien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Bembla 2–1 Stade Tunisien

Bembla beat Stade Tunisien 2-1 in Ligue 2 on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Bembla Stadium in Bembla-Mnara.