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Bembla vs Rogba Tataouine — Ligue 2 2020

Bembla
Bembla
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rogba Tataouine
Rogba Tataouine
M. Belarbi 70', 58', 14'
I. Troudi 5'
5/21/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 21Bembla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bembla51%
×Draw29%
Rogba Tataouine20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bembla
1.28
Rogba Tataouine
0.69

Bembla creates 86% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 36 away

creates per match

Bembla
1.06
Rogba Tataouine
0.56

allows per match

Bembla
0.81
Rogba Tataouine
1.50

finishing

Bembla+0.00on par
Rogba Tataouine+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bembla ↓

Rogba Tataouine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bembla or draw
80%
Bembla or Rogba Tataouine
71%
Draw or Rogba Tataouine
49%

Winning margin

Bembla wins by 2+
24%
Rogba Tataouine wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bembla 1+ goals
72%
Bembla 2+ goals
37%
Bembla 3+ goals
14%
Rogba Tataouine 1+ goals
50%
Rogba Tataouine 2+ goals
15%
Rogba Tataouine 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bembla (draw refunded)
72%
Rogba Tataouine (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bembla at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Rogba Tataouine away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bembla attack 1.06 + Rogba Tataouine defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.28

Rogba Tataouine attack 0.56 + Bembla defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bembla scores more
51%
level
29%
Rogba Tataouine scores more
20%

Bembla at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bembla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
I. Troudi
14'
M. Belarbi
58'
M. Belarbi
70'
M. Belarbi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Bembla 3–1 Rogba Tataouine

Bembla beat Rogba Tataouine 3-1 in Ligue 2 on May 21, 2023.

Goals: I. Troudi (5'), M. Belarbi (14', 58', 70').

The match was played at Bembla Stadium in Bembla-Mnara.