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Bembla vs Jerba — Ligue 2 2020

Bembla
Bembla
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jerba
Jerba
3/26/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 15Bembla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bembla46%
×Draw31%
Jerba23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bembla
1.15
Jerba
0.71

Bembla creates 62% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 48 away

creates per match

Bembla
1.06
Jerba
0.60

allows per match

Bembla
0.81
Jerba
1.23

finishing

Bembla+0.00on par
Jerba+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bembla ↓

Jerba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bembla or draw
77%
Bembla or Jerba
69%
Draw or Jerba
54%

Winning margin

Bembla wins by 2+
20%
Jerba wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bembla 1+ goals
68%
Bembla 2+ goals
32%
Bembla 3+ goals
11%
Jerba 1+ goals
51%
Jerba 2+ goals
16%
Jerba 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bembla (draw refunded)
67%
Jerba (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bembla at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Jerba away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.23 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bembla attack 1.06 + Jerba defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Jerba attack 0.60 + Bembla defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bembla scores more
46%
level
31%
Jerba scores more
23%

Bembla at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bembla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bembla vs Jerba

Bembla beat Jerba 2-0 in Ligue 2 on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Bembla Stadium in Bembla-Mnara.