Bembla 2–1 Jendouba Sport: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Bembla

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jendouba Sport

12/10/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 7Bembla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bembla41%

×Draw31%

Jendouba Sport28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BemblaExpected goals in this matchJendouba Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.83

Bembla

1.08

Jendouba Sport

0.83

Bembla creates 30% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 59 away

1.06

creates per match

0.86

0.81

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Bembla

1.06

Jendouba Sport

0.86

allows per match

Bembla

0.81

Jendouba Sport

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bembla+0.00on par

Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bembla ↓

Jendouba Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Bembla or draw

72%

Bembla or Jendouba Sport

69%

Draw or Jendouba Sport

59%

Winning margin

Bembla wins by 2+

17%

Jendouba Sport wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bembla 1+ goals

66%

Bembla 2+ goals

29%

Bembla 3+ goals

10%

Jendouba Sport 1+ goals

56%

Jendouba Sport 2+ goals

20%

Jendouba Sport 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bembla (draw refunded)

60%

Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bembla at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Jendouba Sport away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bembla attack 1.06 + Jendouba Sport defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Jendouba Sport attack 0.86 + Bembla defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bembla scores more

41%

level

31%

Jendouba Sport scores more

28%

Bembla at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bembla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff