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Bembibre vs Salamanca UDS — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Bembibre
Bembibre
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Salamanca UDS
Salamanca UDS
10/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 5Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bembibre21%
×Draw26%
Salamanca UDS53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bembibre
0.82
Salamanca UDS
1.48

Salamanca UDS creates 80% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bembibre
1.05
Salamanca UDS
1.82

allows per match

Bembibre
1.15
Salamanca UDS
0.59

finishing

Bembibre+0.00on par
Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bembibre ↓

Salamanca UDS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bembibre or draw
47%
Bembibre or Salamanca UDS
74%
Draw or Salamanca UDS
79%

Winning margin

Bembibre wins by 2+
6%
Salamanca UDS wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Bembibre 1+ goals
56%
Bembibre 2+ goals
20%
Bembibre 3+ goals
5%
Salamanca UDS 1+ goals
77%
Salamanca UDS 2+ goals
43%
Salamanca UDS 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Bembibre (draw refunded)
28%
Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bembibre at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bembibre attack 1.05 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.82

Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + Bembibre defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bembibre scores more
21%
level
26%
Salamanca UDS scores more
53%

Salamanca UDS at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bembibre vs Salamanca UDS

Bembibre and Salamanca UDS drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1 in Bembibre.