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Bembibre vs Ponferradina II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Bembibre
Bembibre
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ponferradina II
Ponferradina II
11/6/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 9Estadio La Devesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Bembibre44%
×Draw28%
Ponferradina II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bembibre
1.31
Ponferradina II
0.99

Bembibre creates 32% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 32 away

creates per match

Bembibre
1.05
Ponferradina II
0.84

allows per match

Bembibre
1.15
Ponferradina II
1.56

finishing

Bembibre+0.00on par
Ponferradina II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bembibre ↓

Ponferradina II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bembibre or draw
72%
Bembibre or Ponferradina II
72%
Draw or Ponferradina II
56%

Winning margin

Bembibre wins by 2+
20%
Ponferradina II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bembibre 1+ goals
73%
Bembibre 2+ goals
38%
Bembibre 3+ goals
14%
Ponferradina II 1+ goals
63%
Ponferradina II 2+ goals
26%
Ponferradina II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bembibre (draw refunded)
61%
Ponferradina II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bembibre at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

Ponferradina II away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bembibre attack 1.05 + Ponferradina II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ponferradina II attack 0.84 + Bembibre defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bembibre scores more
44%
level
28%
Ponferradina II scores more
28%

Bembibre at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bembibre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Bembibre 2–0 Ponferradina II

Bembibre beat Ponferradina II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Devesa in Bembibre.