Bembibre 0–3 Palencia CF: Result & Stats

Bembibre

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Palencia CF

1/19/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 20Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Bembibre38%

×Draw29%

Palencia CF33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BembibreExpected goals in this matchPalencia CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.04

Bembibre

1.13

Palencia CF

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 84 away

1.05

creates per match

0.93

1.15

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Bembibre

1.05

Palencia CF

0.93

allows per match

Bembibre

1.15

Palencia CF

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bembibre+0.00on par

Palencia CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bembibre ↓

Palencia CF →

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bembibre or draw

67%

Bembibre or Palencia CF

71%

Draw or Palencia CF

62%

Winning margin

Bembibre wins by 2+

15%

Palencia CF wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bembibre 1+ goals

68%

Bembibre 2+ goals

31%

Bembibre 3+ goals

11%

Palencia CF 1+ goals

65%

Palencia CF 2+ goals

28%

Palencia CF 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Bembibre (draw refunded)

53%

Palencia CF (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bembibre at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

Palencia CF away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bembibre attack 1.05 + Palencia CF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Palencia CF attack 0.93 + Bembibre defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bembibre scores more

38%

level

29%

Palencia CF scores more

33%

Bembibre at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bembibre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff