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Bembibre vs Mirandés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Bembibre
Bembibre
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mirandés II
Mirandés II
12/14/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 14Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Bembibre39%
×Draw28%
Mirandés II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bembibre
1.20
Mirandés II
1.09

Bembibre creates 10% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 112 away

creates per match

Bembibre
1.05
Mirandés II
1.04

allows per match

Bembibre
1.15
Mirandés II
1.34

finishing

Bembibre+0.00on par
Mirandés II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bembibre ↓

Mirandés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bembibre or draw
67%
Bembibre or Mirandés II
72%
Draw or Mirandés II
61%

Winning margin

Bembibre wins by 2+
16%
Mirandés II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bembibre 1+ goals
70%
Bembibre 2+ goals
34%
Bembibre 3+ goals
12%
Mirandés II 1+ goals
66%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
30%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bembibre (draw refunded)
54%
Mirandés II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bembibre at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

Mirandés II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bembibre attack 1.05 + Mirandés II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Mirandés II attack 1.04 + Bembibre defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bembibre scores more
39%
level
28%
Mirandés II scores more
33%

Bembibre at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bembibre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Bembibre 1–0 Mirandés II

Bembibre beat Mirandés II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 14, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1 in Bembibre.